Estimating Knowledge Spillover Effect Based on Cusp Catastrophe Model

摘要

This paper introduces two concepts of knowledge concentration and knowledge application speed, and explains knowledge spillover mechanism by the system dynamics equation of knowledge dilution effect. Meanwhile, it analyses the knowledge spillover characters from the catastrophe perspective, and establishes the cusp catastrophe model for knowledge spillover by modifying the system dynamics equation. It also discusses the judging rules for controlling factor change of knowledge dilution system and knowledge spillover status, and demonstrates the knowledge application spillover characters such as sudden jump and hysteresis as well as cusp catastrophe mechanism from knowledge spillover to acceptable status. Lastly, it conducts an empirical study based on 31 Chinese provincial panel data, points out the knowledge spillover status, changes and development trend with provincial administrative region as the study subject, providing theoretical support for China regional economic development and knowledge strategy.