Implementation of EGY-BLIGHTCAST the first computer simulation model for potato late blight in Egypt

摘要

Late blight of potatoes, the disease responsible for the infamous Irish famine in the mid - nineteenth century, is caused by Phytophthora infestans ((Mont) de Bary) which also affects several different plant species. Phytophthora infestans has the potential to cause devastating disease almost everywhere potatoes are grown in Egypt under the favorable conditions of cool and wet climates. Currently management of such an epidemic disease is by frequent application of fungicides, but consumer concerns over chemical use, led to targeting of spray application to times of the greatest disease risk. The first Egyptian computer model, named by the author EGY-BLIGHTCAST was designed and validated under both computer labs. (Workstations) and under field conditions in 2002 and 2003. It was implemented in different locations (late blight hot spots) in the main production areas of potatoes in Egypt during 2004-2008. EGY-BLIGHTCAST is a integral linking and modification late blight forecasting methods based on short-term observations over several growing season, analyzing the correlation between 24 h microclimate data collected by an automatic agro-weather station (Adcon Telemetry A733 WHERE BASED), and its effect on daily disease infection potential of late blight (DDIP). EGY-BLIGHTCAST can correctly forecast potatoes late blight occurrence and significantly reduced the cost of fungicides necessary for control when compared with routine spray programs (time table applications) under field conditions. The basicroles of system analysis for the model validation and implementation are discussed.