Looking for stronger prices

摘要

Almost there. The fundamentals for a strong recovery in beef prices are in place; the larger economy needs to brighten for all the pieces to fall into line. This fall should show 10-15 percent stronger feeder prices and we may see a longer period thannormal of good cull cow prices. Stats Can just released the July 1 cattle inventory numbers - the decline in the Canadian cow herd continued for the fifth straight year. The year over year total herd numbers are down 4.9 percent and are down a large 17percent since the peak of2005. The cow herd numbers are down 5.1 percent over last year and the number of heifers kept for replacements are down 2.3 percent, indicating no willingness yet from producers to rebuild cow numbers. The U.S. herd also continues to shrink although not at the pace of the Canadian herd. The U.S. also placed fewer cattle on feed than the 2004-2008 average and have been reporting lighter-than-normal slaughter weights. All this adds up to less beef in the system and the potential for a strong price recovery.