A rush to meet a shortfall in forecast LNG consumption is boosting competition to start up new liquefaction projects, creating the risk that production capacity will far exceed expected demand, according to US-based energy consultancy McKinsey. The competition is intensifying because of North America’s shale gas boom and large gas discoveries off east Africa. Global LNG demand is expected to reach 470mn t/yr by 2030, McKinsey says. Existing projects and those already under construction will provide 250mn t/yr, but there are about 60 projects under consideration in 22 countries to cover the projected shortfall. These projects represent about 340mn t/yr of capacity, well above the 220mn t/yr required in McKinsey’s base-case demand scenario.
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