BMI View: China's decision to extend its cull of independent refners to plants previously deemed too big to close has not unduly worried executives at smaller plants. Nevertheless, the long-term trend is for fewer and larger independent refners and extensive consolidation is ultimately unavoidable. China's highest planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), has broadened its plans to close smaller refneries, extending the cull to plants with a capacity of up to 40,000b/d. The plans will have a huge impact on the Asian oil product market, signifcantly reducing fuel oil imports by the plants, which are not legally allowed to process crude oil. It could also result n a wave of acquisitions of independent refners by Chinese NOCs and the closure of numerous small plants.
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