Contrarian forecasts make good headlines. “The end is nigh,” a new research note from US-based bank Citi says. Citi predicts an imminent peak in global oil demand, with improvements in fuel economy and substitution by cheaper natural gas. The note challenges the consensus view that oil demand will continue to grow for at least 20 years. But even when iconoclasts’ arguments are plausible, their timing is often awry. Deutsche Bank was first to say “the end is nigh” in 2009, predicting that oil supply capacity and demand would peak in 2016. This is obviously not going to happen.
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