Leading oil trading firms are waiting for evidence of a slowdown in US tight oil supply growth, and are wary about lower-than-expected demand growth. US tight oil remains at the heart of market outlooks given by leading oil executives at the IP Week conference in London on 10 February. Russian firm Rosneft chief executive Igor Sechin is quick to predict that lower prices will lead to the demise of the tight oil boom. “It is well known that revolutions do not last long, and after them a hard reality settles in,” he says. Falling investment could see a rapid correction in the supply-demand balance. “With base production falling by 5mn-6mn b/d and with the starting excess of 2mn b/d, a sharp cut in investment combined with increasing demand will lead to a balanced physical market in less than a year,” Sechin says. “Cutting investment into production too quickly now can result in an oil deficit in the fourth quarter of this year.”
展开▼
