No Evidence of Precipitous Fall on Horizon for World Oil Production: Global 4.5% Decline Rate Means No Near-Term Peak by CERA/IHS

摘要

The missing link for understanding the future of world oil supply - a solidly based view of oil field decline rates - has now been filled by a new field-by-field analysis of production data by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) and IHS Inc. The aggregate global decline rate is 4.5 percent, rather than the eight percent cited in many studies, based upon CERA's analysis of the production characteristics of 811 separate oil fields.