STRONG OUTBOUND GROWTH FOR EAST ASIA

摘要

On the basis of trade data available at the beginning of May, MDS Transmodal estimates that global trade (excluding intra-regional flows), has grown by some 4% in the first quarter of 2015, compared with the same quarter last year. However, it is forecast to grow by a more modest rate during the full year. For this edition, MDST has monitored the East Asia trade lanes and, for the first quarter of 2015, it has estimated that while volumes leaving the region went up by 7.5% compared to last year, cargo moved in the opposite direction fell by 5.6%, with the drop driven by a decrease in volume moved on the transpacific trade lane (westbound direction) - estimated to have decreased by some 18%. In more detail, the decline is estimated to have been caused by a reduction in the volumes moved from the US to China, with the main commodities (SITC at five-digit level) to suffer the decrease estimated to be "brewing or distilling dregs and waste" and "unbleached kraft paper or paperboard or corrugated paper or paperboard", down by 72% and 14% respectively in the first three months of 2015 compared with the same period last year.