CHINESE ROULETTE: Which way will the Wind Blow?

摘要

To help us understand whether China is likely to resort to force in the ongoing stand-off, an examination of historical precedents may offer some vital clues. As Prof M Taylor Pravel of MIT notes, two characteristics have defined China's use of force. Firstly, "along its continental border, China has employed force in frontier disputes where it has faced militarily powerful opponents (i.e., states that could possibly challenge its otherwise strong claims). Although the local military balance is difficult to measure with precision, China has on an average been vastly stronger in the overall military balance... India in 1962, the Soviet Union in 1969, and Vietnam in the early 1980s. At the same time, China has refrained from employing force against its weaker continental neighbours. Second, China has used force in disputes where the strength of its claims has been weak, especially when it has occupied little or none of the contested territory. In these disputes, China has been sensitive to any further decline in its bargaining power."