Rouble slightly overvalued against current oil prices, no heavy risks for hryvnia

摘要

A decrease in imports together with a stabilization of the situation withcapital outflow provide significant support to the rouble exchange rate.Support also comes from moderately tight lending policy, which is attributedto the persisting uncertainty about future volumes of exportearnings. Once the Central Bank is sure that oil prices have reached thebottom and speculative attacks on the rouble are less likely to happen,the lending policy is likely to start gradually softening. If Metal Expert’smoderately optimistic scenario unfolds, this certainty may appear bythe middle of 2016.