Prices past their peak

摘要

In August, steel scrap prices dropped by a total of 10% in Ukraine amid a plunge in global quotes. With a surge registered in July, the prices remained largely unchanged m-o-m (down 2%). In August, prices for US-origin HMS 1&2 (80:20) decreased by $34/t mo-m to $450/t CFR in Turkey, exerting pressure on Ukrainian suppliers’ positions. Metal Expert predicts the trend will discontinue, as a revival of Turkey’s construction segment and strong scrap markets in the US and Europe will lend support to global raw material quotes in the near future. At the same time, the increase in scrap prices in Turkey will be moderate amid ample inventories and unfavourable export markets for finished steel. In September-October, scrap prices will go up by $15-20/t to $465-470/t CFR, Metal Expert forecasts. Consequently, Ukrainian consumers will see export parity price rising from current UAH 8,000/t to UAH 8,500-8,600/t due to the rise in international quotes and a seasonal devaluation of the hryvnia.