Estimate of Peaks of Carbon Emissions and Pricing of Carbon Emission Permit in China

摘要

With the aid of Matlab software,the peaks of China's carbon emissions and their appearing time in three situations were simulated,and the shallow price of carbon emission permit and its effects on China's economic growth were analyzed.The results show that it is most effective and feasible to reduce energy consumption per GDP by 25%,and the peak of China's carbon emissions will appear in 2017.As a result,energy conservation and emission reduction is realized,and China's international talk power about carbon emission will improved.However,the shallow price and permit rate of carbon emission permit calculated in the situation are the lowest,and the adverse impact of the initial price of carbon emissions on China's economic growth is the largest.Therefore,consideration should be given to both the promotion of pricing and trading of carbon emission permit to reduction of carbon emissions and their adverse effects on GDP in China.