Predicting iatrogenic gall bladder perforation during laparoscopic cholecystectomy: a multivariate logistic regression analysis of risk factors.

摘要

BACKGROUND: Seventeen independent risk factors were examined using multivariate logistic regression analysis to develop a profile of patients most likely at risk from iatrogenic gall bladder perforation (IGBP) during laparoscopic cholecystectomy. METHODS: Since 1989, a prospectively maintained database on 856 (women, 659; men, 197) consecutive laparoscopic cholecystectomies by a single surgeon (R. J. F.) was analysed. The mean age was 48 years (range, 17-94 years). The mean operating time was 88 min (range, 25-375 min) and the mean postoperative stay was 1 day (range, 1-24 days). There were 311 (women, 214; men, 97) IGBP. Seventeen independent variables, which included sex, race, history of biliary colic, dyspepsia, history of acute cholecystitis, acute pancreatitis and jaundice, previous abdominal surgery, previous upper abdominal surgery, medical illness, use of intraoperative laser or electrodiathermy, performance of intraoperative cholangiogram, positive intraoperative cholangiogram, intraoperativecommon bile duct exploration, presence of a grossly inflamed gall bladder as seen by the surgeon intraoperatively and success of the operation, were analysed using multivariate logistic regression for predicting IGBP. RESULTS: Multivariate logistic regression analysis against all 17 predictors was significant (chi(2) = 94.5, d.f. = 17, P = 0.0001), and the variables male sex, history of acute cholecystitis, use of laser and presence of a grossly inflamed gall bladder as seen by the surgeon intraoperatively were individually significant (P < 0.05) by the Wald chi(2)-test. CONCLUSION: Laparoscopic cholecystectomy, using laser, in a male patient with a history of acute cholecystitis or during an acute attack of cholecystitis is associated with a significantly higher incidence of IGBP.