IEA,OPEC boost oil demand growth forecasts on rising COVID vaccinations

摘要

Both the IEA and OPEC have revised upward their 2021 oil demand growth forecasts with both citing rising COVID-19 vaccination rates around the globe despite the temporary pause issued by the US FDA to the administration of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.In its April Oil Market Report(OMR),the IEA raised its 2021 oil demand growth forecast by 230K b/d to 96.70MM b/d,citing stronger oil demand growth forecasts out of China and in the US combined with growing demand in Japan,where local oil demand exceeded pre-COVID-19 levels for the second month in a row in Feb.On April 12 the UK reported road use was at 91% of pre-COVID-19 levels,the strongest daily reading since Nov.The IEA added that this stronger growth around the globe will drive down oil stocks as we move through this year.According to the IEA,global oil stocks fell below 3B bbl by the end of Feb.for the first time since last March to 28.30M bbl above the 2016-2020 average.The fall was led by a drawdown of product stocks at nearly triple the usual seasonal rate.The IEA's April OMR read,"Fundamentals look decidedly stronger.The massive overhang in global oil inventories that built up during last year's COVID-19 demand shock is being worked off,vaccine campaigns are gathering pace and the global economy appears to be on a better footing."