2021 oil demand forecasts further boosted on rising COVID-19 vaccinations

摘要

On April 26,an OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee QMMC)raised its 2021 oil demand growth forecast from 5.6MM b/d to 6.0MM b/d,citing rising COVID-19 vaccination rates in China,Europe,and the US while acknowledging the COVID-19 surges currently being seen in Bra2il,India,and Japan.The JMMC said that this stronger 2021 oil demand growth will result drawing down of the oil glut that developed last year due to the pandemic to just 8.0MM bbl in OECD nations by the end of this quarter,with global oil stocks set to be drawn down by an average of 1.2MM b/d this year.While OECD stocks are set to fall by the end of this quarter,OECD stocks over March rose by 14.4MM bbl to 77.4MM bbl above the targeted 2015-2019 average at the end of that month.In a note to clients on April 28,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(GS)wrote that rising COVID-19 vaccinations in Europe and the US will spur travel demand this summer and result in"the biggest jump in oil demand ever,a 5.2MM-b/d rise over the next six months.The magnitude of the coming change in the volume of demand-a change which supply cannot match-must not be understated."Richard Bronze,co-founder of consultancy Energy Aspects,noted,"People have a lot of cash in their pockets,and as lockdowns ease places will open up and allow those kind of leisure trips that may have been blocked."Given this expected record rise in oil demand over the coming months,GS said it sees Brent prices hitting $80/bbl this summer despite the decision by OPEC+ to return 2.0MM b/d of supply to the market over May-July.