OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties) And Lower Oil Prices: Impacts on Production Capacity, Export Refining, Domestic Demand and Trade Balances

摘要

The East-West Center received a research grant from the US Department of Energy's Office of Policy, Planning, and Analysis to study the impact of lower oil prices on OPEC production capacity, on export refineries, and the petroleum trade. The project was later expanded to include balance-of-payments scenarios and impacts on OPEC domestic demand. The Department of Energy requested that the study focus on the Persian Gulf countries, as these countries have the largest share of OPEC reserves and production. Since then, staff members from the East-West Center have visited Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia and obtained detailed information from other countries. In addition, the East-West Center received from a number of large international oil companies and national governments valuable information on OPEC production capabilities. In order to safeguard the confidential nature of this information, these data have been aggregated in this report. The East-West Center considers the results presented to be the most up-to-date information and analysis available today. This report also provides a major reassessment of the export refining and economic competitiveness of Middle East refineries. As pioneers of the research on OPEC export refineries, the East-West Center has fully reevaluated the performance and outlook of these refineries as of the present. 21 figs., 20 tabs. (ERA citation 14:026267)