Scrap and iron ore supported, met coal less so

摘要

A three-week trading period saw S&P Global Platts 62% Fe fines IODEX move from $78.5/ mt to $93.20/mt, while the CFR Turkish import scrap spot price rose from $259.75/ mt to $293.5/mt. Tightness in both of these markets lifted spot prices higher, moving the spread between the two markets from $181.3/mt to $200.4/mt (touching $171.1/ mt in between). After trading with big premiums, Turkish scrap futures on the LME have recently started to trade in a discount to spot, giving a feel of limited upside in the cash market. The forward curve in iron ore futures, normally trading in a backwardation, has seen a bigger shift upwards in the deferred contracts making the curve flatter, which again could give some support to the spot market. Looking at the futures for the spread between scrap and iron ore, the market expects it to be stable around the $200/mt mark over the next three months.