DEMAND -- Demand for Seaborne Thermal Coal in China Expected to Soften

摘要

Global thermal coal consumption is forecast to continue to form a dominant portion of the electricity generation mixes of many developed and emerging economies. AME forecasts export thermal coal demand to increase 2.2% to 1.04Bt in 2019. In 2020, export thermal coal demand is forecast to rise 1% to 1.05Bt. China’s thermal coal imports totalled 19.8Mt in June, an increase of 6.5% year on year. This resulted in China’s first half year of 2019 thermal coal imports reaching 118.3Mt, up 1% year on year. Due to continuing custom clearance delay in major ports in China and domestic coal production boost, it is unclear when the delay will be lifted. China’s thermal coal consumption increased 7.6% month on month in June to reach 8.9Mt per day, primarily driven by the electricity sector. Chinese demand is expected to weaken further in August, as many ports already exceeded government-imposed quotas. If the restriction continues, end users are expected to increase reliance on supply from domesv v tic sources.