Coal: Evolving Supply and Demand in World Seaborne Steam Coal Trade

摘要

This paper describes the evolution of world seaborne steam coal trade since 1975. It highlights current trends and the historic and present sources of supply and demand and discusses selected factors that may affect future world trade patterns. It concludes with a general discussion on the prospects for United States participation in the growing world markets for steam coal. Worldwide seaborne steam coal trade is linked very closely to the generation of electricity and industrial use of process heat in cement and other manufacturing plants. The main factors that influence this trade are: economic growth, electricity demand, indigenous coal production (and degree of protection from lower cost coal imports), and the delivered costs of coal relative to other substitutable fuels. It may be of interest to know how these factors have changed seaborne steam coal trade in the past twelve years. In 1970, the total world use of steam coal was about two billion short tons. International trade in steam coal was only 80 million tons or about 4% of the total. Seaborne trade accounted for about 30% of international trade, or about 25 million tons. In 1982, the latest year for which good statistics are available, total world use of steam coal was about 3.6 billion tons. Seaborne steam coal trade was 110 million tons which is about 3% of the total and 37% of the international trade. 11 figs., 2 tabs. (ERA citation 11:029225)