China phenol duties will redirect trade Historical precedents offer rough guide to outlook

摘要

If China imposes preliminary antidumping duties(ADDs) on phenol as expected, the measures will immediately affect price and trade flow, but the impact may not be as great as it has been for styrene, says IHS Markit. Styrene trade shifted significantly after China in February imposed preliminary ADDs up to 10.7% on imports from the United States, South Korea, and Taiwan. Volumes from previous top supplier South Korea fell sharply between February and March, and deliveries from Kuwait and Japan surged. Total imports during the entire first quarter declined 22% year over year(YOY). The reduction, together with maintenance outages, helped lift styrene from an average of $l,343/metric ton CFR China in March to $l,415/metric ton in May. Phenol will soon face similar headwinds. In March, China began an antidumping investigation into imports from the United States, the European Union, South Korea, Japan, and Thailand, and IHS Markit expects China to impose preliminary ADDs by year-end. China has imposed ADDs on phenol before, notes Brian Lee, director/aromatics, Asia at IHS Markit. Imports from the United States, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan were subject to ADDs of 3-144% over two five-year periods during 2005-15.”[Therefore], the impact on the market may be less dramatic than that experienced for styrene,”says Lee.