The current situation on the meat market and prospects for its development

摘要

Gross meat production in Russia continued to fall during the first half of 1999, the main causes being declining livestock numbers and reduced consumer demand. The decline was most acute in the corporate sector, with individual holdings contributingan increasing proportion. Beef's share of the market noticeably declined. In general livestock constituted the most unprofitable agricultural sector. By 2000 it is estimated that cattle numbers will have fallen by a further 9%, pigs by 4%, and sheep andgoats by 14%. Less livestock has been sold to traditional procurement organizations, as producers are increasingly seeking outlets that offer more prompt payment or attractive barter deals. Frozen meat imports in 1999 have been at a similar level to 1998, though poultry imports are down. Ex-farm and wholesale prices have maintained an upward trend, especially in the case of beef and pigmeat. Retail prices have risen more slowly, conditioned by reduced consumer demand. Since the devaluation of the rouble in August 1998, however, there has been more demand for Russian products. The greatest increase is expected to be in ex-farm prices. Lower processor and consumer demand is likely to hold back the rate of increase in wholesale and retail prices.