A multi-stage uncertain risk decision-making method with reference point based on extended LINMAP method

摘要

The multi-stage uncertain risk decision-making problems are very common in production and life, such as emergency decision-making problems, batch product sampling inspection, etc. It's very complex and interesting in applications. The multi-stage uncertain risk decision-making process often involves multiple reference points owing to decision-making environment and decision-makers' mentalities. This paper aims to solve the multi-stage uncertain risk decision-making problems without probability information. Decision makers' psychological behaviors are considered by setting the thresholds of possibility degree in different states. The attribute weight optimization model is established based on the extended LINMAP method through a two-stage model, considering the principle of maximizing the ranking consistency of alternatives in all states. The stage weight optimization model is established in the viewpoint of minimizing the opportunity loss. The optimal alternative is selected according to the compromise ranking values, which consider the satisfaction of decision makers. A case is presented to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.