Decomposing the decoupling of water consumption and economic growth in Jiangxi, China

摘要

Current population growth coupled with industrial growth has caused water supply to be outstripped by human demand. Understanding water consumption (WC) decoupling patterns and the factors affecting the decoupling status are essential for balancing economic growth and WC. This study determines the decoupling relationship between WC and economic growth in Jiangxi Province, China, and the driving factors were determined by the Tapio decoupling model and the logarithmic mean Divisia index method. Results showed that changes in the industrial structure in Jiangxi Province resulted in corresponding changes in WC structure. Analysis of the decoupling relationship showed that the decoupling state between WC and economic growth for primary industry was very unstable and largely volatile from 1999 to 2015, but showed a good decoupling status for secondary and tertiary industries. The largest cumulative effects on WC were economic development and technology, which were positive and negative drivers of WC changes, contributing 1,406.14% and ~902.96% to the total effect of WC, respectively. The findings can help Jiangxi government identify the key factors influencing the decoupling effect, and formulate effective policies to reduce WC, which will benefit the harmonious development of economy, society and water resources in Jiangxi Province.