中国经济增长中水资源消耗的时空变化分解研究

摘要

文章借鉴Kaya恒等式,并应用LMDI-I分解模型,分析驱动中国2003~2014年水资源消耗总量变化的经济效应、人口效应和用水效率效应的时空演绎特征.结果发现:人口效应和经济水平效应对水资源消耗的变化皆表现为促进效应,其中,经济水平效应的强度远大于人口效应,是我国水资源消耗量上涨的主要驱动因素;用水效率效应在研究期内皆表现为较强的负向抑制效应,是抑制我国用水量过快上涨的主要因素,同时每个省区的从业人员变动、经济水平变动和用水效率变动共同决定了全国水资源消耗的变动;在当前特定情况下,地区水资源消耗的下降与全国水资源消耗下降存在不一致性.基于以上结论,文章提出了相关的政策建议.%With the Kaya identity and the LMDI-I decomposition model,the paper analyzes the spatial-temporal decomposition characteristics of water consumption in China from 2003 to 2014 in terms of the economic effects,demographic effects and water use efficiency effects.The study shows that both population and eco-nomic level facilitate the consumption of water resources.The economic level effect far out weighs the popula-tion effect,and becomes the main driving factor for the increase of water consumption in China.Meanwhile, water use efficiency effect during the study shows greater negative effect.The national water consumption is determined jointly by the changes in employees,economic level and water use efficiency of each province;and regional decline of water consumption is inconsistent with the national decline in certain situations.Suggestions on related policies have been put forward.