Decomposition analysis of the decoupling indicator of carbon emissions due to fossil energy consumption from economic growth in China

摘要

This study decomposed the indicator of decoupling of carbon emissions due to fossil energy consumption from economic growth in China via the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method to explore key factors influencing decoupling status in different periods. The decoupling indicator was decomposed into energy structure, energy intensity, economic structure, and economic output effects over each period. Decoupling varied due to changes in economic growth and energy intensity during different periods. The economic output effect significantly enhanced decoupling, while the energy intensity effect greatly decreased decoupling. The energy structure and economic structure effects had slight impacts on decoupling. A comparative analysis across different sectors and industrial subsectors revealed that industrial growth determined the status of decoupling of carbon emissions from economic growth in China. In terms of industrial subsectors, the major sources of carbon emissions were electricity, steam, and water production and other energy-intensive subsectors. The energy-intensive subsectors, such as coal mining and washing, petroleum and natural gas exploitation, and chemical manufacture, had great effects on the decoupling of carbon emissions, whereas non-energy-intensive subsectors, such as instruments, meters, cultural and office machinery, and ordinary equipment manufacture, had relatively slight impacts on the decoupling. Policy implications in terms of economic growth, economic structure, and energy consumption were discussed.