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The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks

机译:具有长期实际和名义风险的DSGE模型中的债券溢价

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摘要

The term premium in standard macroeconomic DSGE models is far too small and stable relative to the data - an example of the "bond premium puzzle." However, in endowment economy models, researchers have generated reasonable term premiums by assuming investors have recursive Epstein-Zin preferences and face long-run economic risks. We show that introducing Epstein-Zin preferences into a canonical DSGE model can also produce a large and variable term premium without compromising the model's ability to fit key macroeconomic variables. Long-run nominal risks further improve the model's empirical fit, but do not substantially reduce the need for high risk aversion.
机译:标准宏观经济DSGE模型中的溢价一词相对于数据而言太小且太稳定了,这是“债券溢价之谜”的一个例子。但是,在end赋经济模型中,研究人员通过假设投资者具有递归的爱泼斯坦-津(Epstein-Zin)偏好并面临长期的经济风险,已经产生了合理的期限溢价。我们表明,将爱泼斯坦-津偏好设置引入规范的DSGE模型中也可以产生较大且可变的期限溢价,而不会损害模型拟合关键宏观经济变量的能力。长期名义风险会进一步改善模型的经验拟合,但不会显着减少对高风险厌恶的需求。

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