Storm Surge Reconstruction and Return Water Level Estimation in Southeast Asia for the 20th Century

机译：20世纪东南亚风暴浪涌重建与返回水位估计

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Abstract >We present a methodology to reconstruct the daily maximum storm surge levels, obtained from tide gauges, based on the surrounding atmospheric conditions from an atmospheric reanalysis (20th Century Reanalysis—20CR). Tide gauge records in Southeast Asia are relatively short, so this area is often underrepresented in studies based on long observational records, and there are just a few studies that have analyzed storm surge trends, variability or return water levels (RWLs) from numerical models in this area. Here we develop, calibrate, and validate a multivariate linear regression model that relates the storm surge with the principal components of the local atmospheric conditions. This allows us to reconstruct storm surges for the 147 year 20CR period (1866–2012) and therefore to calculate more robust RWLs from the entire simulated data set and subsets thereof. RWLs are obtained by fitting the monthly maxima values to the Generalize Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. We find an increase in the 50 year RWL from the second half of the 19th century to the present unrelated to mean sea level; this increase is less noticeable when comparing only recent periods. Therefore, further research is needed since there is evidence that atmospheric reanalyses can include spurious trends in the late 19th and early 20th. RWLs obtained from the statistical reconstruction are validated against the ones obtained from observations and from a numerical model. Agreements are generally higher when using surge levels from the statistical model, even before its calibration. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“main”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> >我们提出了一种重建从潮汐仪的每日最大风暴浪涌水平的方法，基于周围的大气条件大气再分析（20世纪的Reanalysis-20cr）。东南亚的潮汐量记录相对较短，因此该地区往往在基于长期观测记录的研究中经常出现，并且只有几项研究已经分析了来自数值模型的风暴浪涌趋势，可变性或返回水位（RWL）这片区域。在这里，我们开发，校准并验证多变量线性回归模型，与局部大气条件的主要组成部分相关的风暴浪涌。这使我们能够重建147年20CR期间（1866-2012）的风暴浪涌，从而从整个模拟数据集和其子集计算更多的强大RWL。通过将每月最大值的值拟合到概括极值（GEV）分布来获得RWL。从19世纪下半叶到目前与卑鄙的海平面无关的人发现了50年的RWL的增加;在最近的时期比较时，这种增加不太明显。因此，需要进一步研究，因为有证据表明大气排列可能包括19世纪末和20世纪初期的杂散趋势。从统计重建获得的RWL对从观察结果和数值模型获得的rwl。甚至在校准之前，使用统计模型的喘振级别时，协议通常更高。</ p> </ abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-34643/'>《Journal of Geophysical Research, C. Oceans: JGR》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第1期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共15页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Cid Alba&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Cid Alba;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Wahl Thomas&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Wahl Thomas;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Chambers Don P.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Chambers Don P.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Muis Sanne&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Muis Sanne;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>College of Marine ScienceUniversity of South FloridaSt. Petersburg Florida USA;</p> <p>Department of Civil Environmental and Construction Engineering &</p> <p>Sustainable Coastal Systems ClusterUniversity of Central FloridaOrlando USA;</p> <p>College of Marine ScienceUniversity of South FloridaSt. Petersburg Florida USA;</p> <p>Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) Vrije Universiteit AmsterdamAmsterdam The Netherlands;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=extreme value analysis&option=203" rel="nofollow">extreme value analysis;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=storm surge&option=203" rel="nofollow">storm surge;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Southeast Asia&option=203" rel="nofollow">Southeast Asia;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=statistical model&option=203" rel="nofollow">statistical model;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=return water level&option=203" rel="nofollow">return water level;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：极值分析;风暴浪涌;东南亚;统计模型;返回水位; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704025579215.html">Storm Surge Reconstruction and Return Water Level Estimation in Southeast Asia for the 20th Century</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Cid Alba&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Cid Alba,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Wahl Thomas&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Wahl Thomas,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Chambers Don P.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Chambers Don P.,</a> <a href="/journal-foreign-34643/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Journal of Geophysical Research, C. 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</ul> <ul style="display: none;"> <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06120112072854.html">基于随机统计模型与水动力模型耦合的风暴潮极端水位预测方法</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 中国专利： CN112085270A </span> <span> . 2020-12-15</span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06120112035453.html">一种基于JPM-OS-Q模型的河口地区极端风暴潮水位计算方法</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 中国专利： CN112036691A </span> <span> . 2020-12-04</span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>3. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130422892574.html">(54) Title: ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY COLORANT COMPOSITIONS AND LATEX PAINTS/COATINGS (57) Abstract: The invention relates to colorant compositions, and aqueous latex paints or other water-borne coatings made from them, which have a mitigated environmental impact. Levels of solvents, additives and impurities comprising volatile non-aqueous constituents, alkylphenol ethoxylates (and derivatives thereof), crystalline silica, and/or formaldehyde are decreased relative to those"typical of preceding generations of colorants and tinted aqueous latex paints and other water-borne coatings. On the other hand, paint-performance as indicated by any of Stormer viscosity stabilization, rheological profile flow/leveling and sag resistance, water sensitivity and color transfer resistance is comparable to a paint in which the aforementioned solvents, additives and impurities are still present.</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  IN2012MN01286A </span> <span> . 2012-08-24</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：（54）标题：环保的彩色组合物和乳胶漆/涂料（57）摘要：本发明涉及着色剂组合物，以及由它们制成的水性乳胶漆或其他水性涂料，它们具有减轻的环境影响。相对于“上一代典型的着色剂和着色水性乳胶漆以及其他水-溶剂”，包含挥发性非水成分，烷基酚乙氧基化物（及其衍生物），结晶硅石和/或甲醛的溶剂，添加剂和杂质的含量降低了。另一方面，由斯托默粘度稳定剂，流变轮廓流平性和流挂性，抗流挂性，水敏感性和耐颜色转移性中的任何一项所表示的涂料性能可与其中上述溶剂，添加剂和杂质为涂料的涂料相比。仍然存在。 </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>4. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130421778690.html">Water reservoir system for storing fresh water from e.g. continuous rainfall during storm, has piping system interconnected with water power plants to generate renewable energy and flood channels that reaches level over normal water level</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  DE102010026904A1 </span> <span> . 2012-01-19</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：储水系统，用于储存例如暴风雨期间持续降雨，管道系统与水力发电厂相互连接，以产生可再生能源和洪水渠，水位超过正常水位 </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>5. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130499965240.html">SYSTEM TO PREVENT AND MITIGATE STORM SURGE DAMAGE, SEA-LEVEL RISE DAMAGE, RIVERINE FLOODING DAMAGE COMPRISING MODIFIED CONCRETE CULVERTS, PEDESTRIAN ACCESS AND NATURAL COASTAL, RIVER, CREEK, AND WETLAND ECOSYSTEMS</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  US2021148068A1 </span> <span> . 2021-05-20</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：制度为了防止和减轻风暴浪涌损坏，海平面上升损伤，河流洪水损坏，包括改进的混凝土涵洞，行人访问和自然沿海，河流，溪和湿地生态系统 </span> </p> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="theme cardcommon" style="overflow: auto;display:none"> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent55">相关主题</h3> <ul id="subject"> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="right rightcon"> <div class="details_img cardcommon clearfix" style="margin-bottom: 10px;display:none;" > </div> </div> </div> <div id="thesis_get_original1" class="downloadBth" style="bottom: 19px;z-index: 999;" onclick="ywcd('0704025579215','4',7,2,1,'',this,24)" class="delivery" prompt="010401" title="通过人工服务将文献原文发送至邮箱" >获取原文</div> <div class="journalsub-pop-up" style="display: none"> <div class="journal-sub"> <h2>期刊订阅</h2> <img src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/img/loginclose.png" alt="" onclick="$('.journalsub-pop-up').hide()"> <p class="pardon">抱歉，该期刊暂不可订阅，敬请期待！</p> <p class="current">目前支持订阅全部北京大学中文核心（2020）期刊目录。</p> <div style="display: flex;margin-top: 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