Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Otztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

摘要

A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Otztal Alps (Austria) until 2100. The model is run in 100m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 down-scaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios as forcing data, making this - to date - the most detailed study for this region in terms of process representation and range of considered climate projections. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Otztal Alps (1850 km(2), 862-3770 ma.s.l.) as well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size (11-165 km2) and glacierization (24-77 %).