Changes in the Maximum Runoff Regime in the Ussuri River Basin: the Methodological Aspects of Forecasting Based on Dynamic-Stochastic Simulation

摘要

The paper discusses the phase of studying the influence of climatic changes on the rainflood runoff of the Ussuri River in the warm season. The algorithm and the methodology of dynamic-stochastic modeling of the river runoff are presented. The annual series of precipitation and runoff observations are analyzed, and the model parameters and the components of the water balance obtained as a result of computer simulation are tested for the presence of significant trends. Sensitivity of the modeling results to changes in the input data and in the parameters of the used Flood Cycle Model (FCM) are estimated. The impact of climatic changes has been found to be manifested as changes in the timelines of the transition seasons (spring and autumn) and in the runoff distribution within a year. The obtained estimates of the impact of different factors on the regime of the rainflood runoff will be used to substantiate the rationale for the scenarios of its long-term prediction.