Effect of Climate Changes on the Maximal Runoff in the Amur Basin: Estimation Based on Dynamic-Stochastic Simulation

摘要

The potentialities of dynamic-stochastic simulation are analyzed as applied to changes in the regime of summer-autumn rain-flood runoff, which is the governing phase of water regime in the Amur Basin. The scenario of climate changes was formulated in a maximally generalized form as an increase in the sum of seasonal precipitation by an amount of up to 20% of its average long-term value; therefore, all obtained estimates are to be regarded as tentative. Notwithstanding the relatively poor support by observation data, a regionally adapted hydrological model with a flood cycle model (FCM) as its core yields reliable and convincing results. The most important conclusion regards the possible disproportionate response to a climate impact, i.e., the relative increase in minimal-runoff characteristics is far in excess of the assumed increase in the total precipitation.