最大熵分布扰动最近邻抽样随机模型在年径流随机模拟中的应用

摘要

年径流随机模拟是水利工程体系规划设计和运行管理的依据。基于最近邻抽样随机原理，应用最大熵分布模型，建立了最大熵分布扰动最近邻抽样随机模型。以陕西省神木站年径流量为例，进行了该站年径流的随机模拟。结果表明，应用文中方法可以保持序列统计参数的特性；最大熵分布扰动最近邻抽样随机模型是年径流随机模拟的一种新途径。%Annual runoff stochastic simulation is the basis for water resource systems planning, design and operation management. Based on the nearest neighbor bootstrap principle, a maximum entropy distribution model was used to build a maximum entropy distribution perturbing nearest neighbor bootstrap model. Taking the annual runoff series of the Shenmu Station, Shannxi Province, as an example, the stochastic simulation of annum runoff was conducted by this model. The result shows that the model can maintain the characteristics of the statistical parameters of the runoff series. It is a new method for the stochastic simulation of annual ranoff series.