Estimate of safety impact of lane keeping assistant system on fatalities and injuries reduction for China: Scenarios through 2030

摘要

Objective: The objective of this research is to assess the number of casualties in China's road traffic accidents that can be reduced by lane keeping assistant (LKA) through 2030, based on the historical data on the number of fatalities and injuries in China and the proportion of LKA planed in China policy. Methods: The analysis was divided into 4 main parts: (1) Predict injuries and fatalities caused by traffic accident in China without LKA through 2030; (2) Apply the methodology to estimate the percentage reduction in injuries and fatalities assuming 100% penetration rate of LKA; (3) Predict the penetration rate of intelligent vehicles with LKA system through 2030 under Chinese government policy planning; (4) Calculate the specific number for the reduction in injuries and fatalities with LKA through 2030. Results: According to the historical accident data, the fatalities caused by traffic accidents without LKA are predicted to be 55,686 in 2020, 51,420 in 2025, and 47,484 in 2030, while the injuries are 188,285, 164,135, and 143,163. The percentage reduction with 100% penetration rate was calculated to be 14.8% for fatalities and 10.1% for injuries. Based on the China policy, the market penetration rate of intelligent vehicle with LKA was predicted to be 44.2% in 2025 and 77.7% in 2030. With the great increase of market penetration rate, the maximum reduction in injuries and fatalities from 2018 to 2030 was calculated. Compared to the previsions without LKA, 3370 fatalities and 7359 injuries will be reduced in 2025, while the specific number is 5465 fatalities and 11,270 injuries in 2030. Considering the three main limitations of LKA, the adjusted result would become approximately 1/9 of the original ideal result to be 375 fatalities and 818 injuries in 2025, while the specific number is 608 fatalities and 1253 injuries in 2030. Conclusions: The safety impact of LKA system on traffic crash fatalities and injuries reduction in China has been estimated. The results indicate that LKA system has considerable potential benefit in China. Interaction design with the driver, setting of the minimum travel speed and adaptability of the harsh conditions of the camera are the breakthrough points for maximizing safety benefits. The safety system of the intelligent vehicle has different benefits in different countries.