'S'-shaped curve: modelling trends in smoking prevalence, uptake and cessation in Great Britain from 1973 to 2016

摘要

Background It is believed that declines in smoking prevalence naturally slow over time as the smoking population 'hardens' and that progress has come primarily from reducing uptake rather than increasing cessation. To address these issues, we undertook the first formal attempt to model the trajectory of smoking prevalence and indices of uptake and cessation in Great Britain from 1973 to 2016.