The Concentration of Population and GDP in High Earthquake Risk Regions in China: Temporal-Spatial Distributions and Regional Comparisons from 2000 to 2010

摘要

China suffers severe earthquake disasters along the Pacific Rim. Rapid urbanization, population growth and economic production have dramatically changed China both spatially and temporally. Exposure has increased rapidly compared with hazards and vulnerability, and exposure has increased earthquake risks more than hazards and vulnerability. Based on county-level data, this paper emphasizes the rising exposure of high earthquake risk regions (HERRs) by analyzing the concentration of population and GDP in HERRs. The results reveal three findings. (1) Population and GDP transferred to HERRs from 2000 to 2010. The vast majority of the population growth (88%) and GDP growth (63.8%) occurred in HERRs, and 16.4% of the population growth and 16.4% of the GDP growth occurred in counties where an earthquake of M 7.5 + may take place. (2) The shift of population and GDP growth in East China was more dramatic than that in West, Central and Northeast China. Overall, 56.8% of the population growth and 38.0% of the GDP growth occurred in HERRs in East China. (3) The Theil index showed that the internal population distribution for each region was also distinct. East China had the largest population growth in HERRs but had the most separation among the regions in China. In both 2010 and 2000, East China had the largest internal Theil index. The population and GDP were concentrated in the places with high earthquake risks, especially in the developed areas of East China. And East China had the most internal inequality. Increasing earthquake risks are a challenges for the country's social and economic development.