Consequences of resource supplementation for disease risk in a partially migratory population

摘要

Anthropogenic landscape features such as urban parks and gardens, landfills and farmlands can provide novel, seasonally reliable food sources that impact wildlife ecology and distributions. In historically migratory species, food subsidies can cause individuals to forgo migration and form partially migratory or entirely sedentary populations, eroding a crucial benefit of migration: pathogen avoidance through seasonal abandonment of transmission sites and mortality of infected individuals during migration. Since many migratory taxa are declining, and wildlife populations in urban areas can harbour zoonotic pathogens, understanding the mechanisms by which anthropogenic resource subsidies influence infection dynamics and the persistence of migration is important for wildlife conservation and public health. We developed a mathematical model for a partially migratory population and a vector-borne pathogen transmitted at a shared breeding ground, where food subsidies increase the nonbreeding survival of residents. We found that higher resident nonbreeding survival increased infection prevalence in residents and migrants, and lowered the fraction of the population that migrated. The persistence of migration may be especially threatened if residency permits emergence of more virulent pathogens, if resource subsidies reduce costs of infection for residents, and if infection reduces individual migratory propensity.