Libya is making tentative moves towards restarting some crude production that has been disrupted since January, but an escalating proxy confict between Russia and Turkey threatens to bring a new dimension to the country’s civil war. The US and European countries are pressuring Libya’s UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) and its main military patron Turkey to halt an ofensive against general Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA). The shift in focus in trying to achieve a ceasefre follows the waning of Haftar’s fortunes in a civil war that has left Libya’s output below 100,000 b/d (see chart).
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