Thrid-Quarter Draw May Flip to Fourth-Quarter Build

摘要

Oil stocks flipped from drawing in September to building in October amid a pile-up of US crude,a mild seasonal pull on diesel stocks and additional Asian refined products coming to market.The world has long been expected to run an oil deficit throughout the second half of 2019 to help support prices,but fundamental balances keep weakening,keeping upward pressure on stocks(OMI Sep.16'19).If products rise through the fourth quarter and into the beginning of the year,they will run into seasonally weaker demand,leading to even more builds.The third quarter's 500,000 barrel per day draw would have looked more like 300,000 b/d without the confirmed 20 million bbl crude draw in Saudi Arabia in September,which came in extremely close to estimates made a month ago(OMI Oct.15'19).Chinese refineries also ramped up in September,curtailing the country's average 24 million bbl monthly crude build this year to just 1 million bbl.These refinery runs are expected to continue at high rates,but the country is also ramping up crude purchases to record levels.