On the source of US trade deficits: Global saving glut or domestic saving drought?

摘要

Are U.S. trade deficits caused by high foreign saving-a global saving glut-or low domestic saving-a domestic saving drought? To answer this question, I conduct a wedge accounting analysis of U.S. trade balance dynamics during 1995-2011 using a dynamic general equilibrium model. I find that a global saving glut explains 96 percent of U.S. trade deficits in excess of those that would have occurred naturally as a result of productivity growth and demographic change. Contrary to widespread belief, however, investment distortions, not a global saving glut, account for much of the decline in real interest rates that has accompanied U.S. trade deficits. (C) 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.