Application of AquaCrop model to predict sugarcane yield under the climate change impact : A case study of Son Hoa district,Phu Yen province in Vietnam

摘要

This work evaluates the climate change impact on sugarcane yield and proposes the solution to shift the seasonal calendar for matching with sugarcane in the Son Hoa District, Phu Yen Province of Vietnam. Future climate change scenarios for time periods in the 2020s, 2055s and 2090s corresponding to low emission scenario RCP4.5 and high emission scenario RCP8.5 were selected to evaluate sugarcane yield in the study area. Simulated results showed that climate change impact would increase sugarcane yield from 1.73 to 8.26% for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The increase of sugarcane yield can be significantly improved when the crop planting calendar will be shifted 40 days delay and sugarcane yield will increase from 1.12 to 8.42 t/ha for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.