Risk zoning of typhoon disasters in Zhejiang Province, China

摘要

In this paper, typhoon simply means tropical cyclone. As risk is future probability of hazard events, when estimated future probability is the same as historical probability for a specific period, we can understand risk by learning from past events. Based on precipitation and wind data over the mainland of China during 1980-2014 and disaster and social data at the county level in Zhejiang Province from 2004 to 2012, a study on risk zoning of typhoon disasters (typhoon disasters in this paper refer to affected population or direct economic losses caused by typhoons in Zhejiang Province) is carried out. Firstly, characteristics of typhoon disasters and factors causing typhoon disasters are analyzed. Secondly, an intensity index of factors causing typhoon disasters and a population vulnerability index are developed. Thirdly, combining the two indexes, a comprehensive risk index for typhoon disasters is obtained and used to zone areas of risk. The above analyses show that southeastern Zhejiang is the area most affected by typhoon disasters. The annual probability of the occurrence of typhoon rainstorms 50 mm decreases from the southeast coast to inland areas, with a maximum in the boundary region between Fujian and Zhejiang, which has the highest risk of rainstorms. Southeastern Zhejiang and the boundary region between Zhejiang and Fujian provinces and the Hangzhou Bay area are most frequently affected by extreme typhoon winds and have the highest risk of wind damage. The population of southwestern Zhejiang is the most vulnerable to typhoons as a result of the relatively undeveloped economy, mountainous terrain and the high risk of geological disasters in this region. Vulnerability is lower in the cities due to better disaster prevention and reduction strategies and a more highly educated population. The southeast coastal areas face the highest risk of typhoon disasters, especially in the boundary region between Taizhou and Wenzhou cities. Although the inland mounta