US gas storage concerns are back after supposedly being put to rest just weeks ago(NGW Jan.28’19).With very cold conditions expected to envelop key markets well into March,it looks like inventories will now enter winter near a paltry 1.2 trillion cubic feet after all.The market has given up on this winter at least three times,recently testing multiyear support in the $2.50s per million Btu in what was seen by many analysts as an obvious overcorrection.”We see fundamental support for prices to retrace back to the $2.85-$3.00/MMBtu level through February and March under anything other than a warm weather scenario,”Societe Generale analyst Breanne Dougherty told Energy Intelligence last month(NGW Feb.11’19).It certainly hasn't been warm,and prices have retraced as Dougherty expected.But analysts are a bit divided on where key fundamentals could drive the market post-March.This is especially true of the storage outlook which has short-term bullish implications but could prove bearish in the end.Based on its latest gas supply/demand outlook,the Energy Intelligence Research & Advisory Group now sees the end-of-March storage stocks landing between 1.15 Tcf and 1.2 Tcf,or down roughly 200 billion cubic feet compared to last year.
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