EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD SUPPLY OF TURKEY

摘要

The aim of this study is to determine the effect of climate change on food supply in Turkey. To achieve this aim, the main agricultural products of Turkey were selected as wheat, barley, rye, oats, sugar beet, rice, dried beans, red lentils, green lentils, chickpeas, milk as to area sown, production quantity, economic importance and available data. The data (production, consumption, import, export and price) belong to 2000-2016 period and were collected from Turkish Statistics Institute. In calculating the effect of climate change on yields 2016 was taken as the base year. The temperature and precipitation projections were taken from General Directorate of Meteorology (MGM) for 2020-2050-2080 years. Analysis and evaluations were made at the regional (12 sub-regions) and national level. The effect of climate change on yields was calculated using the Penman-Monteith and Blaney-Criddle formulas. According to research finding, it was estimated that product yields would be decrease in the average 2-7% in 2020, 4-12% in 2050, 5-20% in 2080. The yield and production decreases would make a serious threat with increase of population and per capita income with the climate change on food security of Turkey.