Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabian Unconventionals Taking Of

摘要

Commercial development of the kingdom's tight gas resources holds large upside potential to its long-term production growth, given the size of the resource base and the scale of capital investment planned by Aramco. Unconventional developments have increased in importance, as planned monetisation of gas resources ofshore in the Red Sea and in the Rub’ al-Khali (the Empty Quarter) have failed to materialise. Despite a potential resource base comparable to that of the US, Saudi Arabia will struggle to replicate the North American shale gas revolution, given critical diferences in their competitive landscapes. The increased availability of methane gas will unlock demand in the power, industrial and water desalination sectors. Crucially, the development will also signifcantly increase ethane production, supporting planned growth in the domestic petrochemicals sector, a key tenet of Vision 2030. Targets to become a net exporter of natural gas by 2030 are ambitious and, in our view, unlikely to be met. However, wider unconventionals develop could open doors on LNG exports beyond our 10-year forecast period.