Application of stochastic Bayesian modeling to assess safety status of baby formulas and quantify factors leading to unsafe products in China market

摘要

Safety status of baby formulas in market is of great concerns due to food safety scandals occurred in China as well as vulnerability of infants and young children, despite the efforts of various stakeholders in recent years to enhance safety & quality. In this study, stochastic Bayesian modeling was used to assess safety status of baby formulas and quantify factors leading to unsafe products in China market, utilizing food safety surveillance data under food category of baby formulas. Results demonstrate a positive safety status, with a value of 3.00 parts per thousand (0.49 parts per thousand-7.01 parts per thousand) for incidence (95% CI) of unsafe formulas in China market during the period of 2014-2018, and a declining trend for annual incidence of unsafe formulas during this period. Results also indicated that nonconformity in essential nutrients was the leading cause undermining safety of formulas in China market. Results generated in this study were more precise, compared with those based on point estimates, for consumers and others stakeholders to gain reliable understandings of safety status of baby formulas in China market. The methods used in this study could be applied by regulatory authorities to analyze food safety status in specific markets, and/or by food producers to analyze safety/quality status of their own products.