We expect Kazakhstan’s annual average crude and condensate production to average 1.87mn b/d in 2019.The giant Kashagan feld will continue to ramp up close to full capacity of 370,000 b/d. Closure for maintenance of several of the country’s major producing felds through Q1 will soften the overall impact on headline output. This will also help the country comply with a pledged cut of 40,000b/d as part of the OPEC+ deal. From 2022, we expect the second phase of the Tengiz feld will boost output by an additional 260,000b/d. This will keep domestic production levels above 1.7mn b/d to the end of our forecast period. Vast underground potential and newly expanded pipeline infrastructure together make a favourable investment case for Kazakhstan.
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