China's unsustainable steel intensity: possible 100 million drop in Chinese steel demand by 2025 Is a sizable decline in China's steel demand inevitable in the next decade?

摘要

WSD's answer is a "strong yes" because: (a) the country's fixed asset investment (FAI) in the past two decades has grown at an unsustainable pace; and (b) the country's steel intensity - in terms of steel consumption per point of GDP - has been driven up to non-sustainable highs. Fixed asset investment in China is now so massive that it probably accounts for at least 92% of Chinese steel demand. Household spending, that accounts for only about 8% of Chinese steel consumption, is about one-seventh as steel intensive as fixed asset investment per unit of spending on these items (Table 1).