FORECASTING GROUNDNUT AREA, PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY OF INDIA USING ARIMA MODEL

摘要

The present study was carried out to identify the appropriate Box-Jenkins Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and fitted. Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques. ARIMA (2,1,3), ARIMA (3,0,3) and ARIMA (2,1,3) model were used to forecast area, production and productivity of groundnut in India for further four years. The forecasted results showed for area, production and productivity of groundnut for the year 2019-20 to be 3682 thousand hectare, 8320thousand tonnes and 1589 in kg/hectare, respectively. And also it is showed there is a decreasing trend on area and fluctuations on production and productivity from the period 2016-17 to 2019-20.