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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society >Influence of convectively coupled equatorial waves and intra-seasonal oscillations on rainfall extremes over India
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Influence of convectively coupled equatorial waves and intra-seasonal oscillations on rainfall extremes over India

机译:对流耦合赤道波和季节性振动对印度降雨的影响

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摘要

Convectively coupled equatorial waves and intra-seasonal oscillations are known to modulate rainfall over the Tropics significantly. The effect of these oscillations on the frequency distribution of extreme precipitation events (defined based on percentile threshold) over Indian region is investigated for the monsoon months of June-September. Based on the variance and phase of the wave, any given day is classified into wet phase and dry phase. Modulation of extreme event probability by the presence of these phases over a given region is quantified for different waves, namely Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), equatorial Rossby wave (ER), equatorial Kelvin wave and mixed Rossby gravity and tropical depressions (MT). It is shown that the presence of wet phase of the waves increases the probability of extreme precipitation occurrence by as much as 150% of the baseline probability while the presence of dry phase can decrease the probability by half over certain regions depending on the wave. Averaged over the whole country, wet phase increases the probability by 30-60% while dry phase decreases by 20-40% except for MT waves where there is increased extreme activity during dry phase. However, the intensity of extreme precipitation does not show significant sensitivity to the changes in phase of the waves.
机译:已知具有对焦耦合的赤道波和季节性振荡,显着调节热带地区。对6月至9月的季风月来研究了这些振荡对印度区域的极端降水事件(基于百分位数)的频率分布的影响。基于波的变异和相位,任何给定的日都分为湿相和干阶段。通过在给定区域上存在这些相位的对极端事件概率的调制被用于不同的波,即Madden-julian振荡(MJO),赤道rossby wave(er),赤道kelvin波和混合rossby gravity和热带凹陷(mt) 。结果表明,波浪的湿相的存在增加了极端沉淀发生的概率,在基线概率的基线概率的概率增加,而干阶段的存在可以根据波取决于某些区域的一半。平均全国各地,湿阶段将概率增加30-60%,而干相减少20-40%,除了在干阶段期间增加极度活动的MT波。然而,极端沉淀的强度对波浪的阶段的变化没有显着敏感性。

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