Temperature Projections from GCMs Using Quantile Remapping Method

摘要

General Circulation Models (GCMs) represent the state art of models for simulations of global climate which takes in to changes in circulation patterns through mathematical and Numerical models. The Globalization and rapid Industrialization coupled with change in land use land cover, is altering the CO2 content in the atmosphere ultimately increasing the temperature. The present study deals with projections of temperature across Indian land region using Quantile remapping method from CMIP5 suite under RCP 8.5 scenario. Bias occurs in the GCM model outputs due to various reasons such as incomplete understanding of geophysical processes, subsequent parameterization, assumptions, methods of solutions in the GCM leads to bias in GCM simulated variables. In the present study 10 GCM are used and the Multi model average (MMA) indicate increase in surface temperature, minimum and maximum temperature for future time windows (2020s, 2050s and 2080s). Our study highlights the usefulness of the climate models for future management of temperature.